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DEN Away

Denver Broncos

HC Nathaniel Hackett
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Josh McDaniels
Sunday 2022-10-02 · 16:25 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

DEN
48.7%
LV
51.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Derek Carr (LV): -0.012 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LV defense: +0.032 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.048 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 23
–
LV 24
Projected margin: LV by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

DEN

Tyrie Cleveland WR Out Hamstring
Jonathon Cooper LB Out Hamstring
Quinn Meinerz G Out Hamstring
Darius Phillips CB Out Hamstring
Billy Turner T Out Knee
Dalton Risner G Questionable Ankle
D.J. Jones DT Questionable Concussion

LV

Foster Moreau TE Out Knee
Hunter Renfrow WR Out Concussion
Sam Webb CB Questionable Hamstring
Rock Ya-Sin CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 23
–
LV 32

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:57 FG LV (9:57) 2-D.Carlson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. DEN 0 – LV 3
  • Q1 02:50 TD DEN (2:50) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – LV 3
  • Q2 11:53 TD LV (11:53) 28-J.Jacobs left guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – LV 9
  • Q2 08:06 FG DEN (8:06) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. DEN 10 – LV 10
  • Q2 03:31 TD LV (3:31) 25-M.Gordon right guard to LV 34 for 7 yards (94-M.Butler, 30-D.Harmon). FUMBLES (30-D.Harmon), RECOVERED by LV-21-A.Robertson at LV 32. 21-A.Robertson for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 10 – LV 16
  • Q2 01:29 TD DEN (1:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 10-J.Jeudy for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 16 – LV 16
  • Q2 00:04 FG LV (:04) 2-D.Carlson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. DEN 16 – LV 19
  • Q3 02:31 FG LV (2:31) 2-D.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. DEN 16 – LV 22
  • Q4 09:54 FG LV (9:54) 2-D.Carlson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. DEN 16 – LV 25
  • Q4 07:19 TD DEN (7:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 22 – LV 25
  • Q4 02:07 TD LV (2:07) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 23 – LV 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 5 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (9:57) 2-D.Carlson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 15 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:16) 17-C.Waitman punts 52 yards to LV 13, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 1-T.Johnson to LV 13 for no gain (26-M.Boone).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (8:06) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:37) 6-A.Cole punts 51 yards to DEN 28, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-M.Washington to DEN 48 for 20 yards (58-D.Butler). LV-59-L.Masterson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 52%

    (4:06) 33-J.Williams up the middle to LV 41 for 2 yards (52-D.Perryman).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 10 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:48) 17-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to LV 19, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-K.Cole to LV 19 for no gain (50-J.Griffith).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 17 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:24) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to DEN 33, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-M.Washington to DEN 49 for 16 yards (41-M.Farley; 33-R.Teamer).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 14 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:18) 17-C.Waitman punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (2:31) 2-D.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:09) 17-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to LV 32, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 84-K.Cole.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (14:57) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to DEN 1, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-41-M.Farley.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 9 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:15) 17-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to DEN 48, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-K.Cole to DEN 41 for 7 yards (82-E.Saubert). PENALTY on LV-1-T.Johnson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 41.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 96%

    (9:54) 2-D.Carlson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 70 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (1:44) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep middle to 26-M.Boone.