4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 55

Denver Broncos 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 19

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 17-C.Waitman punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.07 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 55, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model