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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 8

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(9:57) 2-D.Carlson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.33 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 8, worth +0.44 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP