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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 70

Denver Broncos 23 – Las Vegas Raiders 32

What Actually Happened

(1:44) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep middle to 26-M.Boone.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model