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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 14

Kansas City Chiefs 38 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 19-M.Wright 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.88 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP