Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- KC offense: +0.224 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- TB defense: -0.175 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- QB edge to KC: Tom Brady (TB) +0.109 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.307 EPA/dropback
- KC defense: +0.091 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- TB offense: +0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 4
KC
TB
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 14:20 TD KC (14:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – TB 0
- Q1 10:17 FG TB (10:17) 3-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. KC 7 – TB 3
- Q1 04:07 TD KC (4:07) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 1-J.McKinnon. 25-C.Edwards-Helaire up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – TB 3
- Q2 11:35 TD KC (11:35) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [22-K.Neal]. KC 20 – TB 3
- Q2 08:55 TD TB (8:55) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 13-M.Evans for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 21 – TB 9
- Q2 02:15 TD KC (2:15) Direct snap to 83-N.Gray. 83-N.Gray up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 27 – TB 10
- Q2 00:15 TD TB (:15) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 28 – TB 16
- Q3 11:31 FG KC (11:31) 19-M.Wright 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 31 – TB 17
- Q3 05:46 TD KC (5:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 88-J.Fortson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 37 – TB 17
- Q3 00:47 TD TB (:47) 29-R.White right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 38 – TB 23
- Q4 10:51 FG KC (10:51) 19-M.Wright 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 41 – TB 24
- Q4 03:35 TD TB (3:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 7-L.Fournette for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 41 – TB 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TB 4th & 3 at the 27Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 84%
(10:17) 3-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
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Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 63%
(2:27) 5-J.Camarda punts 49 yards to KC 18, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 24-S.Moore.
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Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 34Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 71%
(5:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire.
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Q3 KC 4th & 6 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 85%
(11:31) 19-M.Wright 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
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Q3 TB 4th & 10 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(10:38) 5-J.Camarda punts 30 yards to KC 35, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.
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Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 14Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EPp(convert) 57% p(FG) 95%
(10:51) 19-M.Wright 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
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Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 64 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(:52) 5-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to TB 21, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.