Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 64

Kansas City Chiefs 41 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

(:52) 5-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to TB 21, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.58 EP
64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 64, worth -1.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model