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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 67

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 5-J.Camarda punts 49 yards to KC 18, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 24-S.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.16 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 67, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 25, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP