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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 24

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(10:45) 77-H.Adeniji reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon right end to MIA 24 for no gain (21-E.Rowe; 8-J.Holland).

The Three Options

GO +2.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.64 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 34, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model