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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Thursday 2022-09-29 · 20:15 Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

MIA
47.3%
CIN
52.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: +0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • CIN defense: -0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • MIA defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to MIA: Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.115 vs Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.139 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

MIA 22
–
CIN 24
Projected margin: CIN by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

MIA

Cethan Carter TE Out Concussion
Hunter Long TE Out Ankle
Andrew Van Ginkel LB Questionable Illness
Terron Armstead T Questionable Toe
Raekwon Davis DT Questionable Knee
Xavien Howard CB Questionable Groin
Brandon Jones S Questionable Chest
Tua Tagovailoa QB Questionable Back
Jaylen Waddle WR Questionable Groin
Cedrick Wilson WR Questionable Ribs

CIN

D.J. Reader DT Out Knee
Drew Sample TE Out Knee
La'el Collins T Questionable Back
Germaine Pratt LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 15
–
CIN 27

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:26 TD CIN (10:26) 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – CIN 6
  • Q1 06:09 FG MIA (6:09) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. MIA 3 – CIN 7
  • Q2 07:36 FG MIA (7:36) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. MIA 6 – CIN 7
  • Q2 02:58 TD CIN (2:58) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 85-T.Higgins for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – CIN 13
  • Q2 00:15 TD MIA (:15) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 2-C.Edmonds for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-S.Hubbard]. MIA 12 – CIN 14
  • Q3 02:43 FG MIA (2:43) 7-J.Sanders 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. MIA 15 – CIN 14
  • Q4 12:03 FG CIN (12:03) 2-E.McPherson 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber. MIA 15 – CIN 17
  • Q4 06:18 FG CIN (6:18) 2-E.McPherson 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber. MIA 15 – CIN 20
  • Q4 01:56 TD CIN (1:56) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 88-H.Hurst for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-45-D.Riley, Defensive Holding, declined. MIA 15 – CIN 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (6:09) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 8 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:43) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to MIA 13, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 87%

    (10:45) 77-H.Adeniji reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon right end to MIA 24 for no gain (21-E.Rowe; 8-J.Holland).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 78%

    (7:36) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (6:47) 10-K.Huber punts 28 yards to MIA 42, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-48-C.Adomitis.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 70%

    (4:27) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-J.Gunter), Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 15 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:37) 4-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to CIN 36, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 12 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:22) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to MIA 8, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 8-J.Holland to MIA 14 for 6 yards (33-T.Flowers).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 2 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (8:15) 4-T.Morstead punts 66 yards to CIN 12, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 35 for 23 yards (81-D.Smythe; 45-D.Riley).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 42%

    (6:25) 10-K.Huber punts 35 yards to MIA 10, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 99%

    (2:43) 7-J.Sanders 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.07 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (12:03) 2-E.McPherson 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (9:58) 4-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to CIN 28, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-20-J.Bethel.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 13 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 58%

    (6:18) 2-E.McPherson 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 45 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 42%

    (:57) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete short right to 10-T.Hill.