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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 34

Miami Dolphins 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(4:27) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-J.Gunter), Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.56 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 34, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 44, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP