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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 81

Miami Dolphins 12 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 4-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to CIN 36, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.60 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 81, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 38, worth -2.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model