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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 56

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Miami Dolphins 12

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to MIA 8, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 8-J.Holland to MIA 14 for 6 yards (33-T.Flowers).

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.10 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 56, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 17, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model