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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 45

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Miami Dolphins 12

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 10-K.Huber punts 35 yards to MIA 10, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.42 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 45, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model