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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 39

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Miami Dolphins 15

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 2-E.McPherson 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.17 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 39, worth -1.83 EP
KICK +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 48, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model