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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 41

New Orleans Saints 7 – Minnesota Vikings 16

What Actually Happened

(6:51) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 1-M.Callaway to MIN 36 for 5 yards (7-P.Peterson).

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.61 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.16 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model