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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
Sunday 2022-10-02 · 09:30 Tottenham Stadium, London GB ☀️ Clear Spread -4.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

MIN
54.7%
NO
45.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • NO defense: -0.166 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NO offense: -0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Andy Dalton (NO): -0.125 EPA/dropback in prior starts (NO starting Andy Dalton in place of Jameis Winston)
  • MIN offense: -0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • MIN crossing 6 time zone(s)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 22
–
NO 21
Projected margin: MIN by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

MIN

Andrew Booth CB Doubtful Quadricep
Za'Darius Smith DE Questionable Knee

NO

Marcus Maye S Out Rib
Michael Thomas WR Out Foot
Andrus Peat G Out Concussion
Jameis Winston QB Doubtful Back
Alvin Kamara RB Questionable Rib
Jarvis Landry WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 28
–
NO 25

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:19 TD MIN (8:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 2-A.Mattison for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – NO 0
  • Q2 09:03 TD NO (9:03) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 12-C.Olave for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. MIN 7 – NO 6
  • Q2 01:07 FG MIN (1:07) 1-G.Joseph 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 10 – NO 7
  • Q2 00:03 FG MIN (:03) 1-G.Joseph 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 13 – NO 7
  • Q3 09:26 FG MIN (9:26) 1-G.Joseph 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 16 – NO 7
  • Q3 03:52 TD NO (3:52) 28-L.Murray left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 16 – NO 13
  • Q4 14:19 FG MIN (14:19) 1-G.Joseph 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 19 – NO 14
  • Q4 09:32 TD NO (9:32) (Shotgun) 66-L.Kidd and 67-L.Young reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 19 – NO 20
  • Q4 04:20 TD MIN (4:20) 18-J.Jefferson left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 25 – NO 22
  • Q4 01:56 FG NO (1:56) 3-W.Lutz 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. MIN 25 – NO 25
  • Q4 00:29 FG MIN (:29) 1-G.Joseph 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 28 – NO 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:46) 4-B.Gillikin punts 47 yards to MIN 22, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 14 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 42%

    (2:35) 14-R.Wright punts 33 yards to NO 12, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 7 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:08) 4-B.Gillikin punts 63 yards to MIN 22, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-J.Reagor ran ob at MIN 45 for 23 yards (48-J.Gray). MIN-6-L.Cine was injured during the play. He is Out.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:05) 14-R.Wright punts 51 yards to NO 6, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-33-B.Asamoah.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 86
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (3:50) 4-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to MIN 44, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 97%

    (1:07) 1-G.Joseph 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 93%

    (:03) 1-G.Joseph 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 7 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:08) 4-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to MIN 15, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 15 for no gain (48-J.Gray).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 9 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:09) 14-R.Wright punts 42 yards to NO 42, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-D.Harty to NO 44 for 2 yards (44-J.Metellus, 29-K.Boyd). FUMBLES (29-K.Boyd), touched at NO 44, RECOVERED by MIN-29-K.Boyd at NO 44.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (9:26) 1-G.Joseph 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 4 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 52%

    (6:51) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 1-M.Callaway to MIN 36 for 5 yards (7-P.Peterson).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 37%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 14-R.Wright pass short right to 83-J.Nailor to NO 34 for 13 yards (25-D.Sorensen).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 14 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 83%

    (14:19) 1-G.Joseph 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 9 at the 42 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 50%

    (1:56) 3-W.Lutz 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 10 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 80%

    (:29) 1-G.Joseph 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.