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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 27

Minnesota Vikings 16 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(14:19) 1-G.Joseph 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.03 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 27, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 37, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model