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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 42

New Orleans Saints 22 – Minnesota Vikings 25

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 3-W.Lutz 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.68 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 42, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model