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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 69

New Orleans Saints 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 4-B.Gillikin punts 47 yards to MIN 22, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.90 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 69, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 27, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model