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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 45

Minnesota Vikings 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 14-R.Wright punts 33 yards to NO 12, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.69 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model