Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 85

New Orleans Saints 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 4-B.Gillikin punts 63 yards to MIN 22, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-J.Reagor ran ob at MIN 45 for 23 yards (48-J.Gray). MIN-6-L.Cine was injured during the play. He is Out.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.11 EP
60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 85, worth -4.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model