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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 78

Green Bay Packers 7 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(8:59) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to NE 40, Center-56-J.Coco, out of bounds. PENALTY on NE-22-Co.Davis, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at NE 40.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.82 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 78, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 35, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model