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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2022-10-02 · 16:25 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

NE
29.4%
GB
70.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to GB: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.215 vs Brian Hoyer (NE) -0.163 EPA/dropback (NE starting Brian Hoyer in place of Mac Jones)
  • GB offense: +0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • NE defense: +0.124 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 21
–
GB 28
Projected margin: GB by 7 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

NE

Yodny Cajuste T Out Thumb
Lawrence Guy DT Out Shoulder
Mac Jones QB Out Ankle
Joshuah Bledsoe S Questionable Groin
Kyle Dugger S Questionable Knee
Davon Godchaux DT Questionable Back
Raekwon McMillan LB Questionable Thumb
Jakobi Meyers WR Questionable Knee
Jalen Mills CB Questionable Hamstring
Adrian Phillips S Questionable Ribs

GB

Caleb Jones T Out Illness
Jaire Alexander CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 24
–
GB 27

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:49 FG NE (9:49) 6-N.Folk 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 3 – GB 0
  • Q2 13:05 TD GB (13:05) 9-C.Watson right end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 3 – GB 6
  • Q2 00:22 TD NE (:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 13-A.Lazard INTERCEPTED by 13-Ja.Jones at GB 40. 13-Ja.Jones for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – GB 7
  • Q3 09:24 TD GB (9:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 85-R.Tonyan for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10 – GB 13
  • Q3 04:59 TD NE (4:59) 4-B.Zappe pass short right to 1-D.Parker for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 16 – GB 14
  • Q3 00:09 FG GB (:09) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. NE 17 – GB 17
  • Q4 11:19 TD NE (11:19) 61-M.Cannon reported in as eligible. 37-D.Harris left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 23 – GB 17
  • Q4 06:17 TD GB (6:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-R.Doubs for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 24 – GB 23
  • Q5 00:04 FG GB (:04) 2-M.Crosby 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. NE 24 – GB 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 10 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 92%

    (9:49) 6-N.Folk 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 18 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 42%

    (5:07) 7-J.Bailey punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 16 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 39%

    (2:32) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to NE 8, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 25-Ma.Jones.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:14) 7-J.Bailey punts 59 yards to GB 31, Center-49-J.Cardona. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 35 for 4 yards (41-B.Schooler). PENALTY on NE-41-B.Schooler, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at GB 35.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:01) 7-J.Bailey punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (8:59) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to NE 40, Center-56-J.Coco, out of bounds. PENALTY on NE-22-Co.Davis, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at NE 40.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.56 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 39%

    (5:53) 7-J.Bailey punts 37 yards to GB 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (3:35) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to NE 21, Center-56-J.Coco. 25-Ma.Jones ran ob at 50 for 29 yards (27-P.Taylor).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 81%

    (11:16) 33-A.Jones left end pushed ob at NE 11 for 17 yards (32-D.McCourty).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 3 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 91%

    (:09) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 9 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:58) 7-J.Bailey punts 31 yards to GB 43, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 13 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 42%

    (2:02) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to NE 2, Center-56-J.Coco, downed by GB-25-K.Nixon.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 89 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (:14) 7-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to GB 45, Center-49-J.Cardona. 8-Am.Rodgers to NE 48 for 7 yards (30-M.Wilson; 18-M.Slater). PENALTY on GB-24-T.Carpenter, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 48.