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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 46

New England Patriots 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:53) 7-J.Bailey punts 37 yards to GB 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.63 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.56 EP