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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 69

Green Bay Packers 7 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(3:35) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to NE 21, Center-56-J.Coco. 25-Ma.Jones ran ob at 50 for 29 yards (27-P.Taylor).

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.60 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 69, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 27, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP