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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 19

New England Patriots 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:49) 6-N.Folk 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.20 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 19, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model