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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 18 at the 45

New England Patriots 3 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:07) 7-J.Bailey punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.01 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.10 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model