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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 90

New England Patriots 3 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 7-J.Bailey punts 59 yards to GB 31, Center-49-J.Cardona. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 35 for 4 yards (41-B.Schooler). PENALTY on NE-41-B.Schooler, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at GB 35.

The Three Options

GO -3.15 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth -0.03 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -3.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 47, worth -3.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model