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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 18 at the 33

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 9-C.Boswell 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.04 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 33, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model