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NYJ Away

New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2022-10-02 · 13:00 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

NYJ
35.1%
PIT
64.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.143 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: +0.092 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Mitch Trubisky (PIT) -0.108 vs Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.228 EPA/dropback (NYJ starting Zach Wilson in place of Joe Flacco)
  • PIT defense: -0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • PIT on 3 more days rest than NYJ

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 18
–
PIT 23
Projected margin: PIT by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

NYJ

Quincy Williams LB Out Ankle
Brandin Echols CB Questionable Hamstring
John Franklin-Myers DE Questionable Toe
Zach Wilson QB Questionable Knee

PIT

Ahkello Witherspoon CB Out Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 24
–
PIT 20

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:06 FG NYJ (4:06) 6-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. NYJ 3 – PIT 0
  • Q2 12:42 TD NYJ (12:42) (Shotgun) 10-B.Berrios pass short right to 2-Z.Wilson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 9 – PIT 0
  • Q2 08:34 FG PIT (8:34) 9-C.Boswell 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. NYJ 10 – PIT 3
  • Q2 00:00 FG PIT (:00) 9-C.Boswell 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. NYJ 10 – PIT 6
  • Q3 07:22 TD PIT (7:22) 8-K.Pickett right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 10 – PIT 12
  • Q4 13:41 TD PIT (13:41) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett scrambles right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 10 – PIT 19
  • Q4 07:35 TD NYJ (7:35) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left to 84-C.Davis for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 16 – PIT 20
  • Q4 00:18 TD NYJ (:18) 20-Br.Hall left guard to PIT 1 for 1 yard (39-M.Fitzpatrick). FUMBLES (39-M.Fitzpatrick), recovered by NYJ-83-T.Conklin at PIT 1. 83-T.Conklin to PIT 1 for no gain (39-M.Fitzpatrick). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 20-Br.Hall left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 23 – PIT 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 38%

    (10:05) 6-P.Harvin punts 36 yards to NYJ 9, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (7:53) 7-B.Mann punts 59 yards to PIT 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-J.Hardee.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 91%

    (4:06) 6-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (2:13) 6-P.Harvin punts 36 yards to NYJ 30, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 18 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 70%

    (8:34) 9-C.Boswell 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:39) 7-B.Mann punts 43 yards to PIT 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 89-G.Olszewski.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 18 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:30) 6-P.Harvin punts 51 yards to NYJ 18, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios. PENALTY on NYJ-72-M.Clemons, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at NYJ 18.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:52) 7-B.Mann punts 40 yards to PIT 29, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 89-G.Olszewski to PIT 34 for 5 yards (36-M.Harris).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:07) 7-B.Mann punts 49 yards to PIT 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 89-G.Olszewski to PIT 26 for 1 yard (34-J.Hardee; 44-J.Sherwood). FUMBLES (34-J.Hardee), touched at PIT 26, recovered by PIT-42-J.Pierre at PIT 22.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (12:13) 8-K.Pickett up the middle to PIT 33 for 2 yards (98-S.Rankins).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 22%

    (5:16) 7-B.Mann punts 44 yards to PIT 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 89-G.Olszewski ran ob at PIT 18 for 10 yards (87-C.Uzomah).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 55%

    (9:48) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 84-C.Davis to PIT 17 for 22 yards (21-T.Norwood, 35-A.Maulet).