Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 18 at the 69

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 6-P.Harvin punts 51 yards to NYJ 18, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios. PENALTY on NYJ-72-M.Clemons, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at NYJ 18.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.79 EP
74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 69, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model