Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 69

New York Jets 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

(3:52) 7-B.Mann punts 40 yards to PIT 29, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 89-G.Olszewski to PIT 34 for 5 yards (36-M.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.18 EP
72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model