Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 74

New York Jets 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(14:07) 7-B.Mann punts 49 yards to PIT 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 89-G.Olszewski to PIT 26 for 1 yard (34-J.Hardee; 44-J.Sherwood). FUMBLES (34-J.Hardee), touched at PIT 26, recovered by PIT-42-J.Pierre at PIT 22.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model