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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 69

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(12:13) 8-K.Pickett up the middle to PIT 33 for 2 yards (98-S.Rankins).

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.70 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 69, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 27, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model