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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 52

New York Jets 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 7-B.Mann punts 44 yards to PIT 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 89-G.Olszewski ran ob at PIT 18 for 10 yards (87-C.Uzomah).

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.03 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.90 EP
KICK -1.80 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model