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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 20

New York Jets 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:06) 6-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.70 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 20, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model