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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 45

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 5-T.Way punts 29 yards to DAL 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-39-J.Reaves.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.48 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.94 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model