4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
WAS Away

Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2022-10-02 · 13:00 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

WAS
31.8%
DAL
68.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Carson Wentz (WAS): -0.009 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DAL defense: -0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 19
–
DAL 26
Projected margin: DAL by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

WAS

Wes Schweitzer G Out Concussion
Charles Leno T Questionable Shoulder

DAL

Dak Prescott QB Out right Thumb
Jayron Kearse S Questionable Knee
Connor McGovern G Questionable Ankle
Dalton Schultz TE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 10
–
DAL 25

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:39 FG DAL (11:39) 19-B.Maher 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. WAS 0 – DAL 3
  • Q2 15:00 FG DAL (15:00) 19-B.Maher 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. WAS 0 – DAL 6
  • Q2 07:11 TD WAS (7:11) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 1-J.Dotson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – DAL 6
  • Q2 01:10 TD DAL (1:10) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 13-M.Gallup for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 7 – DAL 12
  • Q3 05:00 FG DAL (5:00) 19-B.Maher 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. WAS 7 – DAL 15
  • Q3 01:31 FG WAS (1:31) 6-J.Slye 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 10 – DAL 15
  • Q4 15:00 TD DAL (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass deep middle to 88-C.Lamb for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 10 – DAL 21
  • Q4 03:54 FG DAL (3:54) 19-B.Maher 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. WAS 10 – DAL 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 71%

    (11:39) 19-B.Maher 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 9 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (5:06) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to WAS 38, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 15-D.Milne to WAS 38 for no gain (29-C.Goodwin; 1-K.Joseph).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 15 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:56) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to DAL 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 13 for -3 yards (22-D.Forrest).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 6 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 85%

    (15:00) 19-B.Maher 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 11 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 47%

    (11:43) 5-T.Way punts 29 yards to DAL 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-39-J.Reaves.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:48) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to WAS 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:30) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to DAL 15, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin. Injury Update: Jourdan Lewis has a groin injury and has been ruled out for the remainder of the game.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 12 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:52) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to WAS 31, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 15-D.Milne to WAS 39 for 8 yards (1-K.Joseph). WAS-46-M.Eifler was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 3 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 97%

    (5:00) 19-B.Maher 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 18 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 85%

    (1:31) 6-J.Slye 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (12:42) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to DAL 9, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 11 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:28) 5-B.Anger punts 22 yards to DAL 30, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 15 at the 16
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 95%

    (8:02) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep left to 17-T.McLaurin (7-T.Diggs) [92-D.Armstrong].

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 35%

    (6:17) 5-B.Anger punts 39 yards to WAS 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by DAL-14-J.Cox.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 97%

    (3:54) 19-B.Maher 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (2:45) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep left to 17-T.McLaurin (7-T.Diggs).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 11 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 47%

    (2:00) 5-B.Anger punts 38 yards to WAS 7, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.