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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 6 at the 35
Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 0
What Actually Happened
(11:39) 19-B.Maher 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.
The Three Options
GO
+1.05 EP
-
41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.38 EP
- 59% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.27 EP
KICK
+1.12 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 71% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
- 29% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT
+0.29 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.29 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
