Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 89

Dallas Cowboys 12 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to WAS 31, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 15-D.Milne to WAS 39 for 8 yards (1-K.Joseph). WAS-46-M.Eifler was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.99 EP
63% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 89, worth -5.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model