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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 10

Dallas Cowboys 12 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 19-B.Maher 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.57 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 10, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP