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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 18 at the 27

Washington Commanders 7 – Dallas Cowboys 15

What Actually Happened

(1:31) 6-J.Slye 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.33 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 27, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 37, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model