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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 60

Washington Commanders 10 – Dallas Cowboys 22

What Actually Happened

(12:42) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to DAL 9, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.07 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 60, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 19, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model