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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 16

Washington Commanders 10 – Dallas Cowboys 22

What Actually Happened

(8:02) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep left to 17-T.McLaurin (7-T.Diggs) [92-D.Armstrong].

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 16, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.82 EP