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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 56

Washington Commanders 10 – Dallas Cowboys 25

What Actually Happened

(2:45) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep left to 17-T.McLaurin (7-T.Diggs).

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.68 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 56, worth -2.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 17, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model