Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 89

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Washington Commanders 0

(5:06) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to WAS 38, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 15-D.Milne to WAS 38 for no gain (29-C.Goodwin; 1-K.Joseph).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.01 EP
59% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 89, worth -4.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model