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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 6 at the 27
Dallas Cowboys 3 – Washington Commanders 0
What Actually Happened
(15:00) 19-B.Maher 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.
The Three Options
GO
+1.39 EP
-
40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.58 EP
- 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -0.75 EP
KICK
+1.68 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
- 15% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT
+0.20 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
