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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 33

Minnesota Vikings 21 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 1-G.Joseph 51 yard field goal is BLOCKED (91-D.Robinson), Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.61 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model