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Chicago Bears

2-3 HC Matt Eberflus
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Minnesota Vikings

4-1 HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2022-10-09 · 13:00 ET U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 10.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

CHI
36.4%
MIN
63.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Justin Fields (CHI): -0.181 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIN offense: -0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CHI 20 13–27
–
MIN 22 15–29
Projected margin: MIN by 2 Projected total: 42

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 5

CHI

Dane Cruikshank S Doubtful Hamstring
Jaylon Johnson CB Doubtful Quadricep
David Montgomery RB Questionable Ankle

MIN

Ben Ellefson TE Out Groin
Andrew Booth CB Questionable Quadricep
Jalen Nailor WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 22
–
MIN 29

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:18 TD MIN (8:18) 74-O.Udoh reported in as eligible. 4-D.Cook right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – MIN 6
  • Q1 06:11 FG CHI (6:11) 2-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 3 – MIN 7
  • Q2 15:00 TD MIN (15:00) 4-D.Cook right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 3 – MIN 13
  • Q2 07:23 TD MIN (7:23) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 5-J.Reagor for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 3 – MIN 20
  • Q2 01:12 TD CHI (1:12) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 9 – MIN 21
  • Q3 10:31 TD CHI (10:31) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 12-V.Jones for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 16 – MIN 21
  • Q3 01:09 FG CHI (1:09) 2-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 19 – MIN 21
  • Q4 09:31 FG CHI (9:31) 2-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 22 – MIN 21
  • Q4 02:29 TD MIN (2:29) 8-K.Cousins up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 22 – MIN 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 15 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 79%

    (6:11) 2-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 15 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:50) 16-T.Gill punts 52 yards to MIN 39, Center-48-P.Scales. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 47 for 8 yards (31-Ja.Jones). FUMBLES (31-Ja.Jones), touched at MIN 49, and recovers at MIN 49. PENALTY on MIN-29-K.Boyd, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 39.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:15) 16-T.Gill punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 11 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:00) 14-R.Wright punts 15 yards to CHI 40, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds. PENALTY on MIN-98-D.Wonnum, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 40.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIN 4th & 10 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 75%

    (7:38) 1-G.Joseph 51 yard field goal is BLOCKED (91-D.Robinson), Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 67%

    (3:18) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles up the middle to MIN 30 for 7 yards (54-E.Kendricks).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 87%

    (1:09) 2-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 75%

    (9:31) 2-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    See the full breakdown →